Calculating uncertainty
Four months into 2025, a worrying supply trend continues to dominate the local real estate market
WELCOME TO MAY. Yesterday was the day our new prime minister met in the oval office with President Trump. The Canadian economy for the next month, quarter and year will likely be determined by this “relationship” and its outcomes. That is to say, in the short-term our prospects are largely out of our hands.
Let’s look back on the first four months of the year and see what uncertainty has wrought. In the London market, sales activity, with 1,406 homes sold, is down 22 per cent from one year ago, down 44 per cent from three years ago and down 28 per cent from five years ago. The point is homes aren’t selling at the same rate they once were. We’re missing 400 home sales compared to last year ― and 1,100 homes sales as compared to two years ago. Therefore, year to date, we’re missing about 10 homes sales per day as compared to three years ago!
“With chronic low sales volume and record inventory, economic uncertainty and a true buyer’s market, you would expect pricing to soften dramatically. That’s where the market confounds us”
Year to date, active listings are up 30 per cent over last year and 207 per cent over three years ago. There is over four months of inventory as of April 30, 2025. The median “days on market” for a listing has grown to 21 (half the listings take longer than 21 days to sell). That number was six in 2022.
With chronic low sales volume and record inventory, economic uncertainty and a true buyer’s market, you would expect pricing to soften dramatically. That’s where the market confounds us. Prices have largely held, up slightly from a year ago, and down only 13 per cent from 2022. Sellers are choosing to hold prices, refusing to list or taking homes off the market. For the right property buyers are continuing to pay. “Deals” have yet to materialize.
The imbalance of supply and demand, a slowing economy, continued uncertainty and the risk of job cuts all suggest a softening of real estate pricing in the future. Inflation continues to be a severe risk from tariffs and trade issues. Interest rates may not have room to come down to improve affordability. There don’t seem to be any statistics or circumstances in the near term that would serve to “rescue” the real estate sector.
Canada lives north of the giant American market. But London is perhaps more influenced by the influential GTA market to our east. The Toronto market is also seeing anemic sales levels and the highest inventory of homes in the last 12 years. If Toronto catches a cold, let alone pneumonia, we may need to stock up on tissues.
Market analysis provided by Marcus Plowright, Sales Representative, A Team London. Marcus can be reached at 519-872-8326 or marcus@ateamlondon.ca.
High- and low-priced real estate listings around town this week
London East
Low
Address: 1 Rathgar Street
MLS number: X12046878
List price: $309,900
Days on market: 40
Size: 5 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,500-2,000 square feet
Listing agent: Nathan Blanco, Salesperson, EXP Realty
High
Address: 1839 Parkhurst Avenue
MLS number: X12095814
List price: $1,699,000
Days on market: 14
Size: 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 2,000-2,500 square feet
Listing agent: Erin Holowach, Sales Representative, ComFree
London North
Low
Address: 233 Cambridge Street
MLS number: X12113570
List price: $449,900
Days on market: 6
Size: 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 700-1,100 square feet
Listing agent: Dwain Bodkin, Salesperson, Sutton Group Preferred Realty Inc.
High
Address: 864 Clearview Avenue
MLS number: X9298104
List price: $3,995,000
Days on market: 244
Size: 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 5,000-plus square feet
Listing agent: Michael Reis, Salesperson, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada
London South & West
Low
Address: 162 Chesterfield Avenue
MLS number: X12114839
List price: $349,900
Days on market: 5
Size: 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 700-1,100 square feet
Listing agent: Heather Johnston, Broker, Re/Max Centre City Realty Inc.
High
Address: 9385 Elviage Drive
MLS number: X12002246
List price: $3,490,000
Days on market: 62
Size: 5 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 3,500-5,000 square feet
Listing agent: Ashley Winder, Salesperson, Sutton Group – Select Realty
Disclaimer: London Inc. does not guarantee the accuracy of the statistical data on this page. The data does not represent the listings of any one agent or agency but represents the activity of the real estate community in the area. Any real estate agent’s ad appearing is separate from the statistical data provided, which is in no way a part of their advertisement.