The price is right?
With record low demand and historic high supply, how long will home prices remain stable?
THE HEAT OF summer has finally found us! June has arrived and we have five months of 2025 data to tell us a story.
Home sales in May were at their lowest level in the last 12 years, save for the period immediately after Covid started. Last month, 474 homes were sold in London, compared to May 2020 when 466 homes were sold. That was six weeks after Covid arrived on our shores, when we were locked away in our homes, fearful for our lives, washing our groceries and certainly not shopping for homes.
Another telling sales comparison: 474 homes sold last month compared to 764 homes sold in May of 2015. Ten years ago, we sold 38% per cent more homes. Year-to-date, we’ve sold 1,903 houses in London, another record for the lowest volume of sales in the first five months (over the last 12 years).
Suffice to say, volume is at record and historic lows. The problem is demand, because, wow, do we have supply! We have more active listings now than we have had in any May in the last 12 years. There are 2,110 active listings, or 4.5 months supply.
“Every day it becomes increasingly difficult to be a real estate seller in this market. Consequently, you should act sooner than later, price to the market and get your sale while prices are holding”
So, we have record low demand and we have record high supply. One would expect prices to be falling in such circumstances. But prices are holding ― so far. The average price is currently $648,270 and hasn’t changed substantially in the last two years.
Lower demand and a flood of supply alone should push market pricing down, but we can now add recent news that homeowners are missing debt payments and incurring bankruptcies at a rate not seen since 2008. Homeowners have been using their homes escalated values, which have more than doubled since 2017, to consolidate consumer debt into their mortgages. That trend may be coming to an end as they run out of home equity to leverage, or they hit the limit of their ability to service additional debt.
We remain in extremely uncertain times. Just this morning U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum doubled to 50 per cent. The uncertainly of ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ (TACO) trade policy just adds to the instability. Ukraine, Gaza and the pending ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ all seem to be moving us further away from being settled.
Every day it becomes increasingly difficult to be a real estate seller in this market. Consequently, you should act sooner than later, price to the market and get your sale while prices are holding. As a buyer, you have the best market in a generation to find a home and negotiate a great deal. For investors, buying opportunities are materializing ― stabilize your leverage on your current portfolio and prepare your balance sheet to take advantage of near-term deals.
Most importantly for everyone ― find a real estate professional who understands the market, can explain the effect of bond yields on fixed mortgage rates and knows how to protect your interests as you navigate this demanding market. They can protect you from overpaying and guide you to get a listing priced correctly in this slow market.
“June is the gateway to summer” ― Jean Hersey | “Here comes the sun” ― George Harrison
Market analysis provided by Marcus Plowright, Sales Representative, A Team London. Marcus can be reached at 519-872-8326 or marcus@ateamlondon.ca.
High- and low-priced real estate listings around town this week
London East
Low
Address: 784 Adelaide Street North
MLS number: X12170183
List price: $250,000
Days on market: 4
Size: 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 700-1,100 square feet
Listing agent: Abbe Sheedy, Sales Representative, Blue Forest Realty Inc.
High
Address: 1839 Parkhurst Avenue
MLS number: X12095814
List price: $1,699,000
Days on market: 42
Size: 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 2,000-2,500 square feet
Listing agent: Erin Holowach, Sales Representative, ComFree
London North
Low
Address: 23 Blackfriars Street
MLS number: X12135745
List price: $299,900
Days on market: 26
Size: 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 700-1,100 square feet
Listing agent: Kristen Clowry, Broker, Real Broker Ontario Ltd.
High
Address: 864 Clearview Avenue
MLS number: X9298104
List price: $3,995,000
Days on market: 272
Size: 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 5,000-plus square feet
Listing agent: Michael Reis, Salesperson, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada
London South & West
Low
Address: 162 Chesterfield Avenue
MLS number: X12114839
List price: $349,900
Days on market: 33
Size: 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 700-1,100 square feet
Listing agent: Heather Johnston, Broker, Re/Max Centre City Realty Inc.
High
Address: 9385 Elviage Drive
MLS number: X12002246
List price: $3,490,000
Days on market: 90
Size: 5 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 3,500-5,000 square feet
Listing agent: Ashley Winder, Salesperson, Sutton Group – Select Realty
Disclaimer: London Inc. does not guarantee the accuracy of the statistical data on this page. The data does not represent the listings of any one agent or agency but represents the activity of the real estate community in the area. Any real estate agent’s ad appearing is separate from the statistical data provided, which is in no way a part of their advertisement.